Why China will never win a direct conflict with India

 

It is popular belief that wars have been won with military might alone and with the size of one’s arsenal. True, the size and might of an army does have a considerable edge and potential over an opponent. But more importantly, the fighting spirit and patriotic fervor of a nation and its armed forces have time and again proved otherwise that feebler armies with greater spirits have won much, much mightier opponents. Cases in point are Vietnam and Afghanistan. Both these nations have achieved the utterly unthinkable feat of driving away the greatest superpowers from their home turfs. The fierce fighting spirits of the Vietcong and the Mujahideen are world renowned. An important aspect that is commonly occurrent in both these cases is the external help that was clandestinely or otherwise provided to the feebler side. In the former, the Soviet Union was directly and heavily involved in the conflict, and provided large supplies of weaponry to the North Vietnamese forces. While Soviet combat jet aircraft were provided in large numbers, thousands of Russian technical advisors provided invaluable aid to the North Vietnamese.

On the other hand, the USA dispensed numerous, shoulder-fired, Stinger air-defense missile systems to the Afghan Mujahideen rebel fighters, which proved to be the tipping point in the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Hitherto unchallenged and formidable Soviet Hind gunships that killed swarms of rebel fighters were effortlessly brought down after the procurement of the Stinger missiles.

An important lesson from both these conflicts is that the blessing of being endowed with powerful friends can make a colossal difference in the outcomes of wars. While China’s forces are indeed numerically superior to the Indian forces and are even more modern in some areas, what they lack is a true patriotic reason to fight against any perceived or imaginary adversary. China currently does not face even the tiniest of threats from any of its neighbors and has no real cause to stir up patriotic fervor and fighting spirit among its soldiers and citizens. This is only worsened by the enlistment of conscripted soldiers who are neither deeply indoctrinated nor have any real fighting experience. In stark contrast to this, the Indian army is extensively battle-tested, and with the imminent threat of Chinese expansionism and misadventurism, its soldiers are patriotically charged to the core and are willing to lay down their lives in the defence of the motherland, just like the Vietcong. 

 

 

There have been great conquerors in the past, from Alexander the Great, of Greece to the charismatic and ingenious military commander, French emperor Napoleon. There have even been the evil ones like Adolf Hitler, who with his great oratory skills and far-reaching visions - however ill-tasted they might have been, had managed to spellbind his entire populace and made them believe in his propaganda. But Chinese president Xi Jinping is neither Napoleon Bonaparte nor Adolf Hitler. And with the combined force and might of the goodwill that India has successfully created among friendly, other great world powers such as the USA, France, Japan, and the entire western bloc, it is only prudent and even foolproof to conclude that hegemonic China does not have much of a chance, should it turn foolhardy enough to venture into a direct conflict with a geopolitically well positioned India.       

- Vijay Ramalingam